Stocks Retreat on Escalating Tensions in Hong Kong and China

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 8/13/2019

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Last week was another roller-coaster ride, but the S&P’s net decline was only 1% for the week, and just -4.5% from its all-time high on July 26. The big news was the ongoing protests in Hong Kong, which are casting a cloud over China and raising concerns about global growth. These protests have now become more violent, including petrol bombs by some rioters and tear gas by the riot police to disperse crowds.

Protestors congregated at the airport, knowing that the Chinese police would not use tear gas within the airport, but riot police stormed the airport last Tuesday to disperse the protestors. These protests are now hurting the Hong Kong economy, so it will be interesting to see how this fight over lost freedoms in Hong Kong will eventually be resolved. In the meantime, the Chinese military remains on the border and if they enter Hong Kong for the first time since just after World War II, the stock market will likely have an adverse reaction. Here is a link to a podcast I recorded last week on these Hong Kong/China protests

In This Issue:

Bryan Perry sees this latest market sell-off as a rare opportunity for active money managers (like us) to show their stuff in selecting the winners that will likely emerge as leaders from the current carnage. Gary Alexander looks beyond the scary headlines of the past and present to identify America as the best place for your stock money now. Ivan Martchev turns his global attention south of the equator to the surprise election outcome in Argentina and what it implies for their currency and stock market. Jason Bodner examines what last week’s down days tell us and why we shouldn’t freak out over a partially inverted yield curve. Then I’ll return to analyze the U.S. market in light of our competitors in China and Europe.

Income Mail: Looking for Phoenix Stocks from August’s Ashes to Lead the Market Forward

By Bryan Perry

It's Time for Active Managers to Show Their Stuff

Growth Mail: If Not U.S. Stocks, Where Else? If Not Now, When?

By Gary Alexander

Despite August’s Volatility, Now is a Great Time to Invest

Global Mail: Time to “Cry for Argentina”?

By Ivan Martchev

Blue Chips are a Hedge for Inflation

Sector Spotlight: What Happened on Last Week’s Big Down Days?

By Jason Bodner

Don’t Freak Out About the “Inverted Yield Curve”

A Look Ahead: China and Europe are Slowing, the U.S. is Growing

By Louis Navellier

Are We Headed for an Imminent Recession? I Wouldn’t Bet on It

August Volatility Continues as Gold Surpasses $1,500

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 8/13/2019

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With over 85% of companies in the S&P 500 having announced their latest quarterly results, annual sales growth is running at a +5.2% annual pace, while 74% have beaten consensus earnings estimates.

Last week was certainty action-packed due to the escalating trade spat with China. I’ll have more to say about this later on, but here is a link to my podcast explaining the repercussions of this latest trade tiff.

Despite last week’s gyrations, the foundation under the stock market remains very strong, since the 10-year Treasury bond yield, at 1.734% (after an intraday low of 1.614%) remains substantially below the S&P 500’s annual dividend yield. As I have often said, when the S&P 500 yields more than the 10-year Treasury bond, which has only happened 8 times in the past decade, the stock market is a screaming buy!

In This Issue:

Bryan Perry explains how the competing currency devaluations in China, Europe, and the U.S. are pushing gold prices back to $1,500. Gary Alexander recounts the violent August market storms of recent pre-election years (2007, 2011 and 2015), with 2019 off to a similar start. Ivan Martchev is concerned about how long the “comrades” in Beijing can keep their economy afloat through artificial means, and what a big China collapse might mean to the global economy. Jason Bodner predicted this correction and now he is looking at sectors that might lead us back to new highs in the recovery. Then I’ll return to explain why I think China will blink first in this trade war, and why inflation remains no threat as interest rates decline.

Income Mail: What’s the Story Behind Gold’s Recent Rise?

By Bryan Perry

It May Not Be a “Fool’s Gold” Rally This Time Around

Growth Mail: Beware of August Markets in Pre-Election Years

By Gary Alexander

A Record “Low-Pressure System” Hit the Markets in August 2015

Global Mail: The Comrades’ Time is Running Out

By Ivan Martchev

Capitalist Economies Have Economic Cycles

Sector Spotlight: When Markets are Manic-Depressive, what is the Trend?

By Jason Bodner

Investors Want Out of Energy!

A Look Ahead: We Need Patience in the China Trade War, Since the U.S. Holds the Upper Hand

By Louis Navellier

Inflation is Down and Interest Rates are Falling Fast

Trade War Torpedoes the Market but Better Days Will Return Yet Again

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 8/6/2019

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I have long argued that the stock market should just close down for August. I know that’s impractical, but maybe now, you’ll agree with me, after the Dow fell over 1,146 points in the first three trading days of August, including a 767 point drop on Monday. NASDAQ did even worse, falling 3.5% Monday.

I’m sure August will continue to be volatile, but I view this volatility as a good buying opportunity for fundamentally sound stocks. Here’s a link to my Monday podcast for more details on what to do now.

As of last Friday, 77% of the companies in the S&P 500 have announced their second-quarter results and, so far, sales growth is running at a 3.6% annual pace, while the blended earnings decline is -1.0% vs. the expected -2.7%, according to FactSet Earnings Insight. So far, of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported, 61% have beat analyst estimates on sales and a whopping 76% have beaten earnings.

The biggest news last week was that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as expected, cut key interest rates by 0.25% by Wednesday after an 8-2 vote, with the doves easily overpowering the hawks. The Fed also ended its systematic selling of government securities two months earlier than planned. The FOMC statement cited global developments, a slowdown in business investment, and muted inflation as reasons for its first key interest rate cut in 11 years (since 2008). Ironically, the U.S. dollar strengthened after the FOMC statement, which is deflationary, because it lowers the cost of imported goods.

The market remained near its highs until President Trump dropped a Tariff-Tweet bomb on Thursday – threatening tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods starting September 1. The market then overreacted to the President’s bluff, pushing the Treasury yield below the S&P 500’s yield, creating a screaming buy!

In This Issue:

Bryan Perry still sees higher highs coming, especially if the U.S. stands firm in forcing China to end their unfair trade practices by year’s end. Gary Alexander also sees the calendar working in our favor with a strong fourth quarter, adding that U.S. stocks are still the best place for new money now. Ivan Martchev calls for a truce between the White House and Federal Reserve, reminding both fortresses that they have bigger battles (and other foes) to face. Jason Bodner takes us inside our weekly conference call for story ideas and repeats our wish that August would just go away. Then I return with a review of China, Europe, and the latest economic indicators, which continue to identify the U.S. as the oasis in both stocks and bonds.

Income Mail: The Post-FOMC “Halo Effect” for the U.S. Market Faces Key Tests

By Bryan Perry

It’s Still the Economy, Stupid!

Growth Mail: After a Summer Correction, Stocks Usually Explode in the Fall

By Gary Alexander

Stocks (or Advice on Stocks) Make an Ideal Gift for a College Graduate

Global Mail: More on the White House/Federal Reserve Clash

By Jason Bodner

It’s Still Too Early to Call a Recession

Sector Spotlight: A Chilling Market Forecast: “August is Coming”

By Jason Bodner

A Listen-in to our Weekly Friday Morning Conference Call

A Look Ahead: Europe and China are Still Struggling

By Louis Navellier

U.S. Economic News Remains Largely Positive

Ho-Hum! Another All-Time High - S&P Up 29% in 7 Months

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 7/30/2019

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The S&P reached another all-time high last Friday, up over 29% in the seven months since its December 26 intra-day lows. NASDAQ is up over 34% in the same time frame. I was especially surprised to see the lack of a significant correction after the announcements last week that the Justice Department has opened an antitrust probe into whether some dominant technology companies are unlawfully stifling competition.

Specifically, giant tech companies Google and Facebook are expected to be under tremendous scrutiny for years to come, while and Apple could also be swept up into an antitrust investigation.

Navellier & Associates owns AMZN, AAPL, and FB in a few managed accounts for clients but does not own google in managed accounts. Navellier & Associates does not own AMZN, AAPL, FB, or GOOGL in our sub-advised mutual fund. Louis Navellier and his family own AAPL and AMZN in personal accounts but do not own FB or Google.

I should add that we are in the peak week for second-quarter earnings announcements, which are largely coming in better than analysts expected. Although the breadth and power under the stock market has been excellent, the stock market is also getting ‘overbought’ near-term, so some profit-taking is expected.

In This Issue:

Bryan Perry sees good reasons for higher highs later this year, but we’ll likely endure some August doldrums first. Gary Alexander advises looking beyond the current (flat) earnings season to the more positive longer-term trends. After all, that’s what the market usually does. Ivan Martchev questions how soon this mini-trade-war could turn into an economy-strangling “real” trade war, like those of old. Jason Bodner asks and answers a key market question: How can we beat the market, consistently? Then I’ll return to look at some new concerns in Europe and the recent breakdown in Tesla’s business plan.

Income Mail: Expect Some Sizzle to Come Off the Summer Rally

By Bryan Perry

Stock Selection is at a Rising Premium

Growth Mail: Raise Your Eyes Above the Quarterly Horizon, Please!

By Gary Alexander

What about Those High P/E Ratios?

Global Mail: How Trade Wars Act like Mini Hot Wars

By Ivan Martchev

Smoot-Hawley Was a Big Factor in the Great Depression

Sector Spotlight: How Do I Make Market-Beating Money on Stocks?

By Jason Bodner

On Becoming a “Zombie Investor”

A Look Ahead: The ECB is “Driving the Bus” and the Fed is Following Their Lead

By Louis Navellier

Tesla Was a Major Disappointment Last Week

Market Dips Slightly on Escalating Middle East Tensions

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 7/23/2019

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After reaching another all-time high last Monday, July 15, the S&P 500 remained right around its new plateau of 3,000 before falling late Friday to close down 1.23% for the week. The essence of the reason for the decline was escalating tensions in Iran. President Trump on Friday said that Iran is “nothing but trouble,” and said the standoff with Tehran will eventually work out “very nicely.” Trump also said that “Iran is showing their colors” with the seizures and added that “Iran is in big trouble right now,” because its economy has been crippled by economic sanctions. Since Iran’s hostile actions have offended many allies, the pressure for Iran to return to the negotiating table continues to mount. There is growing hope that Iran will cease its hostile actions in the Strait of Hormuz when it returns to the negotiating table.

Oddly enough, crude oil prices fell sharply last week on the anticipation of any impending talks with Iran. This should help keep inflation low and support the Fed’s continued inclination to cut key interest rates.

IBryan Perry writes on an investment sector that has been in the dumps but is now on the move, energy infrastructure ETFs – along with some top recommendations. Gary Alexander writes about the Freedom Fest, where he and I spoke last week, covering some of our panels and other speakers of interest. Ivan Martchev writes on the interesting confluence of central bank strategies – seemingly offsetting each other in a twist on the movie “Analyze This!” Jason Bodner writes that market “stop” (or “sell”) signs can be as rare and hard to find as stop signs in Paris. Then, I wrap up with a look at the economy and world events.

Income Mail: Energy Infrastructure Is Making a Sudden Move

By Bryan Perry

Energy Infrastructure Offers Deep Value

Growth Mail: Highlights from Last Week’s Freedom Fest

By Gary Alexander

Some Other Panels (by Louis and Gary)

Global Mail: Analyze This! -- Central Bank Edition

By Ivan Martchev

The Stealth Credit Multiplier Effect

Sector Spotlight: Is the Market Approaching a Stop Sign?

By Jason Bodner

Does an “Overheated” Market Imply a Coming Crash?

A Look Ahead: Will Economic Sanctions on Iran be Temporarily Lifted?

By Louis Navellier

The Latest Economic News Points to a Rate Cut on July 31

The S&P is Now up 20% in 2019, Despite Flat Earnings So Far

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 7/16/2019

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July is a seasonally strong month and with many market pundits convinced that the Fed will cut key interest rates in late July at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Wall Street is now focusing on the upcoming second-quarter announcement season, fueling market highs in most indexes, with the S&P 500 up 20.2% through Friday, the Dow up 17.2%, and NASDAQ up 24.4%.

Earnings expectations are low, with S&P 500 companies forecast to post a 1.6% year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter. However, due to continued strong stock buy-back activity, a pessimistic analyst community, and the fact that positive operating earnings surprises are common, I expect the S&P 500 to eke out a small earnings gain for the quarter, although it could be a close call. Either way, stocks that continue to sustain strong earnings momentum are poised to break out and emerge as market leaders.

Due to operating margin compression, sales are growing faster than earnings, so I expect that sales growth may be more closely watched than earnings, but I expect those stocks that are still sustaining expanding operating margins to “break out,” since their earnings growth will still be growing faster than sales.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Bryan Perry credits central banks with helping to fuel this bull market, but the big push into U.S. equities comes from the superior returns available here vs. the rest of the world. Gary Alexander responds to some negative videos about America by adding some offsetting positives while also saying we need to address these many challenges to growth to remain #1. Ivan Martchev analyzes the role of MZM (Money Zero Maturity) as well as Fed policy in the recent bull market, while Jason Bodner takes a victory lap for his recent bullish predictions while tempering his long-term positive view with warnings about August. I’ll close with a positive view of a rising second half, based on history, Fed policy, and recent economic news.

Income Mail: There Is No Playbook for Today’s Central Bank Monetary Policy

By Bryan Perry

The “Lost Decade” for Markets Outside the U.S.

Growth Mail: Is America Great, or Just “OK”? Declining or Still #1?

By Gary Alexander

The Myth of America’s Decline…a Perennial Rerun

Global Mail: The Fed Made the Dovish Pivot Before the Last Rate Hike

By Ivan Martchev

Money Supply is Not the Sole Driver of Stock Prices

Sector Spotlight: Warning: Bullish Bragging Begins… Now

By Jason Bodner

Expect Higher Market Levels in 2019, After a Short Pause

A Look Ahead: The Third Year of the Presidential Cycle is the Best

By Louis Navellier

Fed Chair Powell is Now Clear About the Next Rate Cut

Global Interest Rates Continue to Drift Lower

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 7/9/2019

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The big news last week was the continued worldwide decline in interest rates, as the German 10-year bond hit -0.397%. A shocking 25% of all the government debt around the world now has negative yields, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond fell to 1.943% on Wednesday, leaving no doubt that the Fed will cut key interest rates at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in late July.

Due to weak economic news in most nations, we can expect continued rate cuts by central banks around the world in the upcoming months. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to 1%. This is the second 0.25% cut that the Reserve Bank of Australia has made in its past two meetings. I also expect that the European Central Bank (ECB) will also cut its key interest rate by 0.25%.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

There are plenty of investor concerns out there – which Bryan Perry itemizes – but investors are climbing that “wall of worry” to new market highs, with an outlook for more new highs in the second half. Gary Alexander agrees, seeing hope for popular support for most of the pillars of economic freedom which underlie long-term global growth. Ivan Martchev reminds us that the first micro-rate-cut is already behind us, with bigger rate cuts to come. Jason Bodner expected a quiet holiday week but got some unexpected positive action from insider data. I’ll close with a look at the new ECB structure and U.S. economic data.

Income Mail: Stock Indexes Scaling the “Wall of Worry,” Like Sir Edmond Hilary

By Bryan Perry

A Confluence of Factors – and Plenty of Confusion

Growth Mail: Global Growth is Relatively New and Fragile – Don’t Destroy It

By Gary Alexander

These 7 Pillars of Economic Freedom Promote Per Capita GDP Growth

Global Mail: The First Fed Rate Cut is Already Behind Us

By Ivan Martchev

Valid Points from My Alert Readers

Sector Spotlight: Unexpected Positives Hidden Deep in the Data

By Jason Bodner

Where We Stand at the Mid-Year Break

A Look Ahead: A Change of Leadership (But not Direction) at the ECB

By Louis Navellier

As the World Inches Toward a Global Recession, the U.S. Remains the Oasis

Stocks Enjoy Their Best First Half in Over 20 Years

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 7/2/2019

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The S&P 500 posted its best first half (+17.3%) since 1997, capped by the best June (+6.9%) since 1955. Stocks were especially strong on the last two days of June, likely to quarter-ending window dressing, which is a very good sign that institutional buying pressure will likely persist as earnings season heats up!

Early last week, the market was essentially “on hold” as investors waited for the outcome of last weekend’s G20 meeting in Japan with President Trump and Chinese President Xi, but on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on CNBC that “we are about 90% of the way [to a deal] and I think there’s a path to complete this,” which raised hope for a positive outcome and possible trade deal.

In exchange for returning to the negotiating table to pick up where China and U.S. trade negotiators left off, President Trump has agreed to postpone any additional tariffs, creating a face-saving atmosphere that makes both Trump and Xi both look good to their respective countries for negotiations over the summer.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Our authors have mixed views of the G20 summit. Bryan Perry fears that their posturing may be more “lipstick on a pig” than real progress, while Ivan Martchev sees signs of progress in both North Korea and China trade. Both see a rising U.S. market in the second half. Gary Alexander chronicles a great first half but sees “termites” eating away at our future growth in the form of high and rising deficits. Jason Bodner dives deep into last week’s anomaly in falling indexes across the board – except for the Russell 2000. Then I’ll return with a look at the latest indicators and the new debate between recession or 2% growth?

Income Mail: Lots of Lipstick Applied to the G20 Deal

By Bryan Perry

Back to Business as Usual for the Stock Market

Growth Mail: First Half “Post-Mortem” Looks More Like a “Resurrection”

By Gary Alexander

Long-Term Threat from Trillion-Dollar Annual Deficits

Global Mail: High-Level Diplomacy – Now on Sale

By Ivan Martchev

China’s “Kung Fu Debt Pile”

Sector Spotlight: Reverse-Engineering Last Week’s Russell 2000 Increase

By Jason Bodner

What Made the Russell 2k Rise While Most Indexes Declined?

A Look Ahead: Weak Economic News Virtually Guarantees a Rate Cut in Late July

By Louis Navellier

The Current Debate: A Recession Ahead, or 2% GDP Growth?

The Fed is Split 50-50 on 1 or 2 Rate Cuts in 2019

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 6/25/2019

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The big news last week was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement on Wednesday, which removed the word “patient” and set the Fed up for potential 0.25% key interest rate cuts at its July and/or September FOMC meetings. Interestingly, the FOMC statement also acknowledged that there are “muted inflation pressures” and that “business fixed investment has been soft,” which will cause the Fed “to act as appropriate.” Seven of 17 FOMC members now forecast two 0.25% rate cuts, while eight FOMC members forecast just one 0.25% rate cut. Only St. Louis Fed President James Bullard wanted to cut rates immediately. As a result, I expect that the Fed will likely cut rates by 0.25% at its July meeting.

At his press conference on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cited slowing global growth and lower interest rates as influences on slower U.S. economic growth. In fact, after his press conference, the 10-year Treasury bond fell below 2% in overseas trading for the first time since 2016. There is no doubt that persistent global capital flight to the U.S. is continuing to push Treasury yields lower. The market liked the Fed’s report and soared to new highs on Thursday, capping the best June (so far) since 1955

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Bryan Perry leads off with an “off the political grid” income opportunity in healthcare REITs with a special focus on healthcare facility management. Gary Alexander offers a time-tested user’s guide to the upcoming doomsday predictions, along with an antidote to the fear politicians intend to engender. Ivan Martchev has long predicted that the junk bond market indicates no recession and a strong market, which June has justified. Jason Bodner shows how careful stock selection is more vital at times like this, when the markets are trading at new highs. Then, I’ll return with a focus on the global news last week.

Income Mail: A High Yield Bright Spot in the Healthcare Sector

By Bryan Perry

The Opportunity in Healthcare Facility REITs

Growth Mail: A User’s Guide to Doomsday Election-Year Predictions

By Gary Alexander

The Vast Gulf Between Wars and “Rumors of War”

Global Mail: It’s Too Early to Call a Recession

By Ivan Martchev

Junk Bonds, Yet Again, Called the New Stock Market Highs

Sector Spotlight: Perception vs. Reality in Nature and the Markets

By Jason Bodner

Want an Oasis in the Desert? Try U.S. Stocks.

A Look Ahead: Europe Moves to Sink the Euro, Lifting Gold to $1,400

By Louis Navellier

Trump’s Near Miss on War with Iran

All Eyes (and Ears) Are on the Federal Reserve This Week

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 6/18/2019

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The stock market was largely on “hold” last week in anticipation of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and clarification of when the Fed might start cutting key interest rates. Right now, the Fed Funds futures are signaling about a 74% chance that the Fed will cut rates at its late-July meeting. I think that a cut at the September meeting is much more likely, since President Trump likes to “torment” the Fed by telling them that they made a mistake by tightening too quickly last fall. 

Since the Fed is supposed to be independent of the White House, the Fed says that it is “data driven” instead of doing what President Trump wants, so we’ll dig into some of the details that will influence the FOMC’s decision, as well as covering ways to profit from collapsing worldwide interest rates.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Bryan Perry takes a ride in the profitable convertible market this week – that hybrid security market in which bonds can convert into common stock. Gary Alexander reviews the chances that this longest bull market and longest economic recovery can keep getting longer into 2020. Ivan Martchev examines the changing interest-rate environment in the last six months and how that intersects with the China trade deal standoff and new tensions in Iran. Jason Bodner uses a Father’s Day lesson to impart lessons of why we buy and hold the best stocks rather than over-trading, and then I’ll return with a review of last week’s various inflation indicators, the latest oil market realities, and the rest of the FOMC’s data checklist.

Income Mail: The Market’s Top-Down Case for Convertibles 

     By Bryan Perry

Buy Your Own Convertible (car) With Convertible Profits

Growth Mail: The Longest Day, the Longest Bull Market, and the Longest Recovery

     By Gary Alexander

Growth Trumps Value This Year and This Decade

Global Mail: There is a Bull Market in Bonds Out There

     By Ivan Martchev

Political Judo, Sun Tzu-Style

Sector Spotlight: A Father’s Day Message from 37,000 Feet

     By Jason Bodner

Growth Still Leads the Way

A Look Ahead: Inflation is Low (and Going Lower), Giving the Fed Room to Cut Rates

     By Louis Navellier

Other Economic Indicators That the FOMC Will Watch Most Closely This Week

Switch from Trade Fears to Rate-Cut Hopes Lifts Stocks

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 6/11/2019

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The financial news media has switched its obsession from trade tariffs to a coming Fed rate cut, so the news media is finally reporting some more positive news for a change and the market “melted up” by almost 5% last week, recovering more than two-thirds of its losses suffered in the entire month of May.

Despite this sharp rise in the indexes last week, I’d still say stock picking will beat index funds, especially with the NASDAQ 100, where several flagship stocks are under investigation. Google is under Justice Department scrutiny in a potential antitrust probe, and The Wall Street Journal has also reported that the Federal Trade Commission is probing how Facebook’s business practices impact digital competition. 

The NASDAQ 100 is also being adversely impacted by Tesla’s woes, so NASDAQ’s former flagship index is under siege as many of its mega-cap stocks falter. Fortunately, I do not own Google, Facebook, or Tesla, so I have not been adversely impacted by these NASDAQ 100 flagships’ recent gyrations. 

Navellier & Associates does not own Tesla, Google or Facebook in managed accounts and our sub-advised mutual fund. Louis Navellier and his family does not own Tesla or Google or Facebook in personal accounts.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

What a difference one week makes! Bryan Perry examines how some of the “bad news” on the economic front perversely makes a rate cut more likely, which favors stocks. Gary Alexander wonders if China is in danger of the kind of long-term growth malaise Japan has suffered since 1990, if they don’t reform some of their economic shell games. Ivan Martchev also has suspicions about China’s growth rate, in light of falling oil and industrial metals prices. Jason Bodner celebrates the revival of stocks in general, and tech and semi-conductors specifically, as the market wakes up to the good news that has been there all along. In the end, I give three reasons why rates are falling worldwide and why we can expect rate cuts here, too.

Income Mail: The Bond Market is “Already There” and Waiting on the Fed to Catch Up 

           By Bryan Perry

Jerome Powell to Wall Street – “I’ve Got Your Back” 

Growth Mail: Will China’s Growth Machine Suddenly Implode – Like Japan’s Did?

           By Gary Alexander

China’s Growth Rates are Already Slowing Dramatically

Global Mail: Commodities are “from Venus,” Too

           By Ivan Martchev

You Can't Fake Oil Demand

Sector Spotlight: It Pays Dividends to Hunt for Good (Realistic) News

           By Jason Bodner

Equities were “Tweeted into a Tailspin” in May

A Look Ahead: What’s Behind the Global Race to Zero (or even Negative) Interest Rates?

           By Louis Navellier

Most Economic Indicators Point Toward a Slowdown, Justifying Fed Rate Cuts

Market Indexes are Down in May Over Several Global Crises

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 5/29/2019

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The S&P 500 is down about 4% so far in May (through last Friday) mostly due to trade tensions with China, but those tensions were loosened somewhat on Friday after U.S. officials eased some of the trade restrictions on China’s 5G giant, Huawei, granting them a 90-day temporary extension to stock up on U.S. semiconductor orders. Since Googleprovides their Android system, Huawei’s 5G phones will be at a tremendous disadvantage without access to Android’s voice recognition. Clearly, Huawei will be forced to develop its own voice-activated system if the fight over 5G continues and lasts for over 90 days. 

This move gives Presidents Trump and Xi time to work out a face-saving solution to the trade war. As I have repeatedly said, both Trump and Xi want to say they “won,” so the new trade deal must benefit both China and the U.S. In the meantime, do not be surprised if China devalues the yuan to offset tariff costs. 

In my opinion, however, Thursday’s market decline stems more from European fears than China, as I’ll explain below. There’s also a crisis brewing in Iran, which Bryan Perry examines in more detail below.

Navellier & Associates does not own Google or Huawei in managed accounts and our sub-advised mutual fund. Louis Navellier and his family do not own Google or Huawei in personal accounts.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Most of our authors focus on the positive side of the U.S./China trade talk impasse. The U.S. holds the winning hand and China seems to be shooting itself in the foot. Bryan Perry focuses on the slowing growth rate in China and the opportunity in U.S. defensive blue-chip stocks paying high dividend yields. Gary Alexander disputes the assumption that inflation will return if high tariffs remain in place over time, while Ivan Martchev argues that China seems to use these latest tariffs as cover for a long-term strategy of yuan devaluation. Jason Bodner covers the sectors that have sold-off in the latest “controlled-burn” correction, while I argue that these trade tensions will not hurt the U.S. economy or the market, long-term.

Bryan Perry doesn’t think President Trump will authorize any Mideast War, but he recognizes the risk. More importantly, he chronicles a record quarter of global and domestic dividends and buy-backs. Gary Alexander takes us back a century to a very troubled year, 1919, but a great (+30%) year for stocks. Ivan Martchev settles in for the long-game in the China-U.S. “trade storm,” while describing what seems to be a typical bit of deception in Huawei’s intellectual property (IP) practices. Jason Bodner shares a personal angle on how stocks tend to return to their long-term ascent after normal corrections. Then I’ll examine the unrest in Europe as the main culprit for last Thursday’s market malaise, and a closing note on Tesla.

Income Mail: Perception of Risk of an Iran War Feeds Market Tension

           By Bryan Perry

U.S. Leads Global Record Quarter of Rising Dividend Payouts

Growth Mail: A Memorial Day to Remember – 1919

           By Gary Alexander

We Don’t Know History, So We Don’t See How Good Things Are Today

Global Mail: The Calm before the Chinese Trade Storm

           By Ivan Martchev

An Anecdote on Chinese IP Practices

Sector Spotlight: Remember – Great Stocks Always Go Back Up

           By Jason Bodner

A Return to Red Ink Last Week

A Look Ahead: European Unrest Was a Big Cause of Last Thursday’s Sell-off

           By Louis Navellier

Analyst Sees Decline of Tesla to $10

First-Quarter Sales and Earnings Delivered Positive Surprises

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 5/21/2019

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First-quarter announcement season is now more than 90% complete and I am happy to report that the S&P 500’s sales are up 5.9% and earnings are up 2.2%, which is a stunning surprise, since the analyst community had predicted negative earnings growth and 4% sales growth. Accelerating sales growth is a sign of overall GDP growth and a likely sign that we’ll see positive surprises in upcoming quarters, too.

Treasury rates dipped below 2.4% last week. The lower rates go, the more aggressive the corporate stock buybacks will likely be. On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal featured an excellent article entitled “Booming Buybacks Aren’t Likely to Wane Despite Market Volatility.” (Check it out, if you can.) In late May, after first quarter earnings announcement season ends, I expect to see many more stock buybacks.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Most of our authors focus on the positive side of the U.S./China trade talk impasse. The U.S. holds the winning hand and China seems to be shooting itself in the foot. Bryan Perry focuses on the slowing growth rate in China and the opportunity in U.S. defensive blue-chip stocks paying high dividend yields. Gary Alexander disputes the assumption that inflation will return if high tariffs remain in place over time, while Ivan Martchev argues that China seems to use these latest tariffs as cover for a long-term strategy of yuan devaluation. Jason Bodner covers the sectors that have sold-off in the latest “controlled-burn” correction, while I argue that these trade tensions will not hurt the U.S. economy or the market, long-term.

Income Mail: No Plans to End the “Little Squabble” Any Time Soon 

           By Bryan Perry

Emperor Xi Has No Clothes 

Growth Mail: Will a Trade War Cause Soaring Inflation?

           By Gary Alexander

The CPI Overstates Inflation, Perhaps by 2% a Year

Global Mail: The Chinese Silver Bullet Is Yuan Devaluation

           By Ivan Martchev

Exchange Rate Manipulation is a Sun-Tzu-Style Maneuver

Sector Spotlight: Is This Correction a “Controlled Burn” or a Wildfire?

           By Jason Bodner

The Latest Selling is Focused on Specific Sub-Sectors

A Look Ahead: Trade Tensions Spook Wall Street – But the U.S. Holds the Winning Hand

           By Louis Navellier

The Economy Continues in “Goldilocks” Mode

Market Corrections Give Investors New Buying Opportunities

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 5/14/2019

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After setting a new all-time high on April 30, the S&P 500 suffered some tough days but is still down only 4.5% from its peak. The stock market initially got up on the wrong side of bed last week when fears emerged that the Chinese trade negotiations may be breaking down. However, China sent a very large team to negotiate trade deal enforcement details, so the stock market recovered somewhat on Friday.

In the heat of last week’s market action, I recorded three podcasts. Here’s my latest podcast (yesterday).

Interestingly, the fear that the trade talks with China might be derailed, lowered Treasury yields, which in turn just makes stocks all the more attractive, especially as the post-earnings-season stock buyback surge heats up. As I have repeatedly said, I expect another big wave of stock buybacks in the upcoming weeks.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Most of our analysts weigh in on the sudden eruption of renewed trade tariffs on Chinese goods. Bryan Perry focuses on the dangers to the Chinese housing bubble if this trade rift is not mended soon. Ivan Martchev agrees, since China can’t keep ignoring its epic debt bubble (300% of GDP) by one artificial intervention after another. Jason Bodner weighs in on how bugs in the China trade deal interrupted a fine earnings season (and Trump’s legal challenges). Meanwhile, Gary Alexander continues his series on how to interpret economic statistics from a variety of angles for better understanding, while I concentrate on two other major geopolitical hot spots – Iran and Venezuela – as well as the Chinese trade situation.

Income Mail: Trade War Threatens to Pop China’s Housing Bubble

     By Bryan Perry

Expect No Gain on Trade without Real Pain

Growth Mail: Media Myths Fuel Widespread Ignorance

     By Gary Alexander

Examples of Alternative Facts (or Alternative Explanations)

Global Mail: A Sino Trade Curveball

     By Ivan Martchev

A Hard Landing in China is a Matter of When, Not If 

Sector Spotlight: Trade Conflicts amid Earnings Season Disrupt Markets

     By Jason Bodner

Five Reasons for Buying Stocks on Dips

A Look Ahead: Geopolitics (in Iran and Venezuela) Dominate the News Again

     By Louis Navellier

Trade Talks Escalate to Cover Intellectual Property Protection

Earnings Surprises and Share Buy-backs Hold Promise for May

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 5/7/2019

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It is starting to get bumpy, but I was encouraged by wave after wave of strong sales and earnings announcements last week. So far, the S&P 500’s annualized earnings are 5.6% above estimates.

We had an incredible April, which is a seasonally strong month that benefits from pension funding and the fact that some of the best earnings surprises tend to be released in April. However, in May, earnings surprises tend to be not quite as strong, so the overall market could get bumpy in the upcoming week. 

Last May was incredible, however, fueled by wave after wave of stock buy-backs. Specifically, companies suspend stock buy-backs in this “quiet period” (during earnings announcement season), but immediately after their first-quarter results are announced, they are free to commence more stock buy-backs. Since there were $227 billion in stock buy-backs in the first quarter and bond yields have since fallen, I expect stock buy-back activity to pick up in the second quarter, so May could be a great month, just like last year.

Speaking of buy-backs, Apple confirmed on Tuesday that it is boosting its stock buy-back program by $75 billion. Big multinational companies like Apple can issue debt at ultralow interest rates to buy back more shares. With rates so low, it appears that the second-quarter buy-back frenzy may be stronger than in 2018! 

Navellier & Associates owns AAPL in some managed accounts but not in our sub-advised mutual fund. Louis Navellier and his family own AAPL in personal accounts.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Bryan Perry sees some “green shoots” of growth emerging in Europe and elsewhere around the globe, with a potential for high yields in selected European banks. Gary Alexander focuses on the misuse of economic growth statistics during the election cycle: Beware of bias, even by the “best and brightest.” Ivan Martchev sees the charts and the fundamentals pointing to a Dow heading for 30,000 (and the S&P to 3,250), perhaps this year. Jason Bodner follows the phenomenal growth story of semiconductors and software within the tech sector, while I cover the upbeat economic scorecard and the Fed’s latest meeting.

Income Mail: Economic Green Shoots in Europe Sparking Optimism

     By Bryan Perry

Fat Dividend Yields from European Bank Stocks Come with Elevated Risks

Growth Mail: Happy Birthday, Karl Marx…Now, Please Just Die!

     By Gary Alexander

How the Best and Brightest “Lie with Statistics”

Global Mail: The Dow Chart says It’s Going to 30,000

     By Ivan Martchev

Why the Fundamentals Support the Technical View

Sector Spotlight: Finding the Truth Amid the Noise

     By Jason Bodner

Semiconductors and Software Lead the Tech Charge

A Look Ahead: A Powerful Jobs Report Lifts the Market on Friday

     By Louis Navellier

The Fed (as Expected) Left Interest Rates Alone

Earnings May Eke Out a Small Gain in the First Quarter!

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 4/30/2019

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The S&P and NASDAQ both reached all-time highs on Friday, but the big news last week is that there may be a switch in leadership in the social media space. Previously, investors seemed worried that Twitter (TWTR) was purging some users. However, last week Twitter posted better-than-expected first-quarter sales and earnings, due largely to the fact that advertisers and users appreciated the company’s attempt to curtail abuse from (1) disinformation, (2) fake news, and (3) bullying. The fact that Twitter is tackling social media abuse while boosting advertising revenue bodes well for Twitter surpassing Facebook as a social media leader. (It doesn’t hurt that President Trump is an active Twitter user.)

Meanwhile, negative 10-year yields in both Japan and Germany put downward pressure on U.S. Treasury bond yields, which promotes the “Goldilocks” environment that has fueled much of the stock market rally this year. So far, nearly half (46%) of the S&P 500’s announcements are in, and first-quarter sales are up at a 5.1% annual pace, and 77% of S&P companies have reported a positive surprise in earnings! The analyst community now expects the S&P 500’s first-quarter earnings to fall 0.6%, up from -3.9% just a month ago. It is now possible that the S&P 500 may eke out a small gain when all is said and done.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Bryan Perry takes a closer look at the FAANG stocks, with a focus on Apple and its delayed entry into the 5G phone market. Gary Alexander compares April 30 to May 1 in history – both in the market sense (should we “Sell in May”?) and in the political arena. Ivan Martchev sees higher market highs by looking at comparative bond yields in the U.S., and by comparing the dollar to the euro and yen. Jason Bodner looks at “stealth buying” by institutional investors as another sign that this bull market has legs, while I examine America’s newfound power in energy independence and our global economic leadership.

Income Mail: Apple’s Earnings are at the Core of Further Market Gains

           By Bryan Perry

Apple iPhones Will be Late to the 5G Party

Growth Mail: April Was Great, But Don’t “Sell in May” (or Go Away)

           By Gary Alexander

Do We Prefer Our Constitution (April 30) or Socialism (May 1)?

Global Mail: The U.S. Yield Curve Has Still Not Inverted

           By Ivan Martchev

Implications for the Stock Market 

Sector Spotlight: The Market Image I Can’t Un-see

           By Jason Bodner

What are the Big Buyers (and Sellers) Doing Now?

A Look Ahead: In Oil Markets, The U.S. is the “New OPEC”

           By Louis Navellier

The U.S. Economic Dashboard is Still “Under the Speed Limit”

Hopes for Greater 5G Internet Speed Lift the Market Higher

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 4/23/2019

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The biggest news last week was that the Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) settlement on Tuesday should help both companies move on and proceed to build great 5G products. There is no doubt that 5G, which brings cable modem broadband speeds to wireless products, will trigger a massive upgrade to phones, tablets, computers, and other products that utilize wireless broadband technology. Unlike a wi-fi network, 5G is supposed to be much more readily available and bring blazing speeds to wireless products. 

The next big 5G fight will be between Huawei (China) and America’s QualcommIntel(INTC), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Xilinx (XLNX), all of which are developing 5G chipsets. The Trump Administration has made it very clear that it wants the U.S. to win the 5G war for worldwide market share, but Huawei is a formidable competitor. Essentially, whoever controls 5G is expected to control the Internet several years from now, so this is shaping up to be an epic fight between China and the U.S.

Navellier & Associates owns AAPL, XLNX and INTC in managed accounts and XLNX and INTC our sub-advised mutual fund. Louis Navellier and his family own XLNX and INTC via the sub advised mutual Fund only.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Bryan Perry reminds us what he has been saying all along – before the crowd noticed – that the rest of the world has not stopped growing. Gary Alexander lauds the new “Fed Listens” program and urges they take a giant step further – to accept the maverick new board members (Moore and Cain) nominated by Trump. Ivan Martchev explains the now-broken correlation between the U.S. dollar and oil, with a new look at China’s miraculous 26-year escape from recession. Jason Bodner examines the latest sector waves, with a particular look at Health Care, which I will expand on in my closing comments. In short, it’s all politics!

Income Mail: Another Week – Another Global Growth Surge 

           By Bryan Perry

Global Blue Chips Sport Fat Yields 

Growth Mail: The Case for Adding Steve Moore & Herman Cain to the Fed Board

           By Gary Alexander

Some Questions for the Fed (If They’re Listening)

Global Mail: Odd Correlation Between Oil and the Dollar

           By Ivan Martchev

More Divergences in the Energy Space 

Sector Spotlight: Catch a Wave and You’re Sitting on Top of the World

           By Jason Bodner

Health Care’s “Pause for the Cause” (and Gauze)

A Look Ahead: Good Health Care Stocks are Out of Favor – Over Political Fears

           By Louis Navellier

Business Confidence is Picking Up in the Sprin

Corporate Stock Buy-backs Rise 59% in First Quarter

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 4/16/2019

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Even though the S&P 500 is off to its strongest start in almost a decade, Lipper reported that stock mutual funds had outflows of $39.1 billion in the first quarter. Some of these outflows could have been attributable to ETFs capturing more market share, but another major reason for the market’s strength seems to be the fact that companies in the S&P 500 repurchased $227 billion of their outstanding shares in the first quarter, according to FactSet. In the first quarter of 2018, S&P 500 companies repurchased $143 billion, so stock buy-backs soared 59% last quarter, due in part to extremely low interest rates.

In this ultra-low interest rate environment, the S&P 500’s dividend yield of approximately 1.85% remains super-attractive. The S&P 500 is up strongly this year despite low earnings projections, but my favorite economist, Ed Yardeni, pointed out last week that many institutional investors may be looking beyond the first quarter’s lackluster earnings forecasts, since first-quarter sales growth is expected to be strong and earnings growth for the second-half of this year and into next year is anticipated to be relatively strong. 

Frankly, the analyst community has been so aggressive in cutting their first-quarter earnings estimates that we could be on the verge of another round of positive operating earnings surprises in the coming weeks.

In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Bryan Perry opens by saying the market sees a lot of good news beyond the current growth malaise story, including strong tech growth over the next five years. Gary Alexander offers part 2 of his story on how the press misuses statistics in their effort to scare (even misinform) the general public, to increase ratings. Ivan Martchev revisits the currency markets to weigh the latest dollar strength against the euro and some submerging “emerging” market currencies. Jason Bodner covers the growth sectors that have led this recovery, with a special focus on why the Semiconductors are leading the way. Then, I’ll conclude with a look at the latest misguided QE policies in Europe and some misleading inflation statistics just released.

Income Mail: Markets are Levitating Amid All the Static

     By Bryan Perry

High-Tech REITs Offer Strong Growth and Juicy Yields

Growth Mail: How Partisans Misuse Statistics to Try to Mislead Us

     By Gary Alexander

Five Examples of How to Spot the Misuse of Statistics

Global Mail: The Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar is Headed to All-Time Highs

     By Ivan Martchev

The Trade Deal’s Impact on the Dollar and Other Currencies 

Sector Spotlight: Tune Out the Noise, Tune into the Key Statistics

     By Jason Bodner

Why Software and Semiconductors are Leading the Charge

A Look Ahead: Negative Rates in Europe and Japan are Causing Capital Flight

     By Louis Navellier

Inflation Rates Seem High but are Skewed by an Energy Price Surge