Solid Reasons for Optimism Despite October's Shaky Start

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 9/24/2019

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Despite two straight daily declines and all the Doomsday headlines in the middle of last week, the S&P 500 only declined 0.33% last week, while NASDAQ gained 0.54% and many highly rated stocks rallied. This relative strength in quality stocks is encouraging as we approach third-quarter announcement season.

On my Tuesday podcast, I stressed that we are now in the seasonally strong time of the year, while on my Wednesday podcast, I stressed that there are a lot of reasons to be excited, including a potential Fed rate cut in late October. Another source for hope is that our friends at Bespoke Investment Group (BIG) issued a great report that showed how after a 1% decline in the S&P 500 on the first day of the fourth quarter, the average gain for October averaged 3.75%, and the gain for the rest of the quarter averaged 7.22%.


In This Issue:

On the verge of China/U.S. trade talks, impeachment inquiries began, throwing the country (and market) into turmoil, but Bryan Perry still sees a chance for progress in facing down China’s long-time business practices. Gary Alexander surveys some notable long-term economic progress, drowned out by negative press coverage. Ivan Martchev shows why crude oil isn’t rising, despite disruptions in the Middle East, due to a global slowdown, but the junk bond market still says there is no U.S. recession in sight. Jason Bodner shows how some big funds got mauled by sharks in feeding frenzies in late summer volatility but sticking to fundamental analysis and watching the big money traders continues to pay dividends. Then I’ll close this week’s issue with a look at the tensions in Hong Kong and some key U.S. economic indicators.

Income Mail: Impeachment Inquiry Puts Pressure on Any China Deal

By Bryan Perry

Time to Reset How China Does Business in the U.S.

Growth Mail: The Economic Miracle Continues…But Bad News Drowns It Out

By Gary Alexander

When Will the Next Recession and Bear Market Begin?

Global Mail: More Signs of Trouble in the Crude Oil Market

By Ivan Martchev

Crude Implications for the Junk Bond Market

Sector Spotlight: The Market Undergoes Periodic “Feeding Frenzies”

By Jason Bodner

Some Big Funds Got Mauled by Sharks Last Month

A Look Ahead: Communist China Turns 70 as Hong Kong Struggles to Stay Free

By Louis Navellier

Mixed U.S. Economic Statistics Send the Market Down (then Back Up)

Market Corrects on a Trade War Skirmish, Not Saudi's Hot War

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 9/24/2019

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The market was fairly flat last week until Friday’s correction, but the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 are still up about 2% for September, and we will likely see a strong close of the month due to quarter-ending window dressing. That’s when many institutional investors accumulate fundamentally superior stocks in anticipation of reporting their third-quarter results and their list of quarter-ending stock holdings.

There were big new developments in short-term U.S. interest rates and geopolitical developments in the Middle East (which I’ll discuss in detail later), but those events didn’t impact the market much. The market fell most sharply Friday after Chinese delegates cancelled a planned trip to a Montana farm, in a trip widely seen to be helpful toward ending the trade spat, but I see that as a minor trade war skirmish.


In This Issue:

Bryan Perry sees great opportunity in this new supply disruption in the Middle East, namely in the energy infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) focusing on the Permian Basin. Gary Alexander calls our attention to the growing worker shortage in the U.S. and the historical ignorance which makes some think we are more “divided” (or violent) than ever. Ivan Martchev is taking the week off, while Jason Bodner examines the hidden level of institutional buying behind last week’s big sell-offs. I’ll return with a more detailed look at last week’s big events – the attack on Iran’s oil fields and the Fed’s latest actions.


Income Mail: Volatility in Oil Markets Puts Fresh Focus on U.S. Crude Production

By Bryan Perry

Time to Revisit Energy Infrastructure Stocks

Growth Mail: U.S. Worker Shortage Begs for Skilled Immigrants…or Willing Young Males

By Gary Alexander

More Divided Than Ever? Not by a Long Shot

Sector Spotlight: Is the Market Sick, or Just “Playing Possum”?

By Jason Bodner

More Buying than Selling in Most Sectors

A Look Ahead: The Fallout from Iran’s Attack on Saudi Oil Facilities

By Louis Navellier

The Fed Cuts Rates 0.25%, But by a Split Vote

Last Week Delivered a Massive Rotational Correction in Stocks

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 9/17/2019

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Last week delivered a relatively nasty rotational correction that punished the previous winners and rewarded some perennial laggards. In one of their excellent research reports, our friends at Bespoke Investment Group (BIG) put this trend more bluntly, calling the recent market gyrations a “Dash for Trash.” Their latest weekly Bespoke Report showed how August’s winners were often September’s big losers. For instance, small cap stocks and low P/E-ratio stocks rebounded impressively last week.

The truth of the matter is that these air pockets and rotational corrections are very common in September, which is a weak seasonal month. Fortunately, the Fed will be cutting key interest rates this week, and then quarter-ending window dressing should revive most of my powerful growth stocks, especially those that are characterized by strong fundamentals, such as rapidly rising forecasted sales and earnings.


In This Issue:

Last week represented a reversal on many levels, creating several new buying opportunities. Bryan Perry isolates one such opportunity in specific REITs. Gary Alexander covers the historical benefits of today’s gridlock in Washington, while Ivan Martchev analyzes who may benefit from last week’s drone strike on Saudi oil facilities. Jason Bodner sees new and unusual buying activity in most S&P sectors, while I see an escalating war of words between the President and the Fed in advance of this week’s FOMC meeting.

Income Mail: Bond Buyers Get Buffaloed by Renewed U.S. Optimism

By Bryan Perry

Correction in Hot Growth REITS is a Buying Opportunity

Growth Mail: September is Strong So Far (Especially in Small Caps)

By Gary Alexander

Happy 232nd Birthday, U.S. Constitution

Global Mail: Who Benefits from a Saudi Oil Drone Strike?

By Ivan Martchev

Implications for Bond Prices If There is a Military Escalation

Sector Spotlight: When the Facts Change, We Change…Fast

By Jason Bodner

What a Buying (or Selling) Surge Looks Like

A Look Ahead: President Assaults Fed “Boneheads” For Not Cutting Rates to “Zero or Less”

By Louis Navellier

The Economic News Turns Positive, Making a 0.50% Rate Cut Highly Unlikely

September Begins Down, but Ends Up Nearly 2% in Week 1

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 9/10/2019

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Even though the stock market initially stumbled last week, like any good bull market, every dip is seen as a good buying opportunity. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ gained 1.8% last week. When the market was volatile, I was online with an explanation why. Here are links to my Tuesday and Thursday podcasts.

As I discussed on the Tuesday podcast, I expect energy prices to decline in September due to weaker seasonal demand. There are billions more people in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, so as the summer driving season winds down and the weather cools, demand for crude oil and natural gas ebbs. Currently, natural gas prices are near record lows and crude oil prices may fall to $45 to $48 per barrel, due to the fact that excess supply will persist. This is great news for continued low inflation. The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, has risen only 1.4% in the past 12 months, well below its 2% target, and may drift lower as energy prices ebb


In This Issue:

Bryan Perry leads off with an examination of the likelihood of 50-to-100-year Treasury bonds – a trend already underway in Europe and in some U.S. corporate bonds. Gary Alexander is “off the grid” in Alaska but writes from his historical viewpoint about what drives markets – and what puts them to sleep. Ivan Martchev has just returned from his native Bulgaria, so he examines his two native lands for clear trends over the last 30+ years. Jason Bodner sees a welcome return of big institutional buying in the last week, while I examine the latest drama in China and Britain, along with last week’s economic tea leaves.

Income Mail: The Coming of “Ultra-Long” Treasury Bonds to the U.S.

By Bryan Perry

50-Year and 100-Year Corporate Bonds in the U.S. are Alive and Well

Growth Mail: With no Internet Service, an Eerie Quiet Overtakes the Market

By Gary Alexander

America is (or Was?) the Land of Exploration and Innovation

Global Mail: A Stranger in the Homeland

By Ivan Martchev

The Euro is An Unfinished Experiment


Sector Spotlight: I’m Changing My Tune to Short-Term Bullish

By Jason Bodner

Rates are Crazy Low – and Going Lower

A Look Ahead: Don’t Be Surprised if We See a Trade Agreement by Year’s End

By Louis Navellier

Economic Indicators are “Mixed” but Not Strong Enough to Prevent Rate Cuts

Super-Low Rates Give Stocks a Superb Comparative Advantage

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 9/4/2019

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The interest rate environment remains more bullish than ever for the stock market! Last week, the stock market celebrated the lowest 30-year Treasury bond yield in over a decade as the S&P 500’s dividend yield rose above the 30-year Treasury bond yield, an event that hasn’t happened since 2009, when a massive 10-year bull market rally began! Since the Fed is carefully monitoring global events, it will be interesting to see just how fast they cut key interest rates, but we could see two 0.25% interest rate cuts at the next two Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings due to rapidly falling Treasury yields.

Most U.S. economic news is also positive, but despite this run of good news, CNBC has been featuring Nomura analyst Masanari Takada, who called for a “Lehman-like” plunge and a monster sell-off that could happen soon. Specifically, in a client note, Takada said the U.S. stock market is facing its “greatest test of the year thus far,” adding that low sentiment is poised to prompt “panic-selling by fundamentals-oriented investors and systematic selling by trend-following technical investors along the way.”

Let me say this bluntly. CNBC likes to promote obscure bearish analysts to boost its ratings and Internet hits. Remember Nouriel Roubini? Like the boy that cried “wolf,” perma-bears tend to be ignored after making several false calls, and I believe Mr. Takada will soon take his place in this “sky is falling” club.


In This Issue:

Unlike Mr. Takada, Bryan Perry knows that low investor sentiment is a contrary sentiment – a good buy signal. Bryan also highlights a sharp rise in a shipping index, indicating revived global growth ahead. Gary Alexander promotes wider asset diversification to survive dangerous and volatile months like August and September. Ivan Martchev is taking the Labor Day weekend off after his annual vacation to his native Bulgaria, while Jason Bodner and I are literally weathering the assault of Dorian on Florida!

Income Mail: Extreme Negative Investor Sentiment Sets the Table for a September Rally

By Bryan Perry

Is the Baltic Dry Index Signaling a Global Economic Recovery?

Growth Mail: August and September are Great Months for Diversified Portfolios

By Gary Alexander

Don’t Blame the Trump Tax Cuts for Growing Federal Deficits

Sector Spotlight: Is This the Calm…or the Storm?

By Jason Bodner

Last Week’s Rally Was a Low-Volume Head-Fake

A Look Ahead: The Euro-Based “Black Hole” is Benefiting U.S. Stocks and Bonds

By Louis Navellier

The U.S. Economic News Continues to Brighten

President Trump Torpedoes Last Week's Market Recovery

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 8/27/2019

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The S&P was up 1.2% last week before Friday’s -2.64% sell-off (matched by a 623-point Dow decline). A big reason for this volatility during the “dog days of summer” is that much of Europe and New York City is on vacation. Even central bankers go on vacation – up at Jackson Hole, Wyoming in the annual Kansas City Fed conference that started on Thursday. In his speech in the Grand Tetons, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, as expected, signaled a coming 0.25% interest rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September, which should have boosted the stock market going into the weekend, but unfortunately, President Trump took to his Twitter account at around 11:00 am Friday to mock Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish speech, while declaring both Chairman Powell and China as “enemies” of the U.S. Then he abruptly instructed U.S. businesses to stop doing business with China.

Specifically, President Trump tweeted that “Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA,” and added, “We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them.” Parallel with the stock market decline, gold rose $30 to another six-year high as the dollar index fell 1%. Yikes! Here is a link to a podcast I recorded Friday to decipher that day’s volatile market.


In This Issue:

Bryan Perry has identified a specific sector set to grow rapidly over the next five years, namely the 5G tech sector. Gary Alexander lists five specific reasons why the current “inverted yield curve” phobia may be way premature and overblown. Ivan Martchev expands on that theme by examining the high-yield bond spread as well as the latest U.S./China rift. Jason Bodner takes time out for a moving personal story, which also ties in with the hidden undercurrent of market news, then I’ll close with a closer look at China.

Income Mail: There’s A Stealth Bull Market in The Making

By Bryan Perry

Once-in-a-Decade Technology Explosion - Retiring on 5G Technology Profits

Growth Mail: Five Reasons Why This “Inverted Yield Curve” is Likely a False Alarm

By Gary Alexander

Warring Central Bank Policies Artificially Inverted U.S. Rates

Global Mail: Junk Bonds Are (Yet Again) Not Worried

By Ivan Martchev

Why the Inverted Yield Curve is Not Completely Kosher


Sector Spotlight: Time Out for a Personal Story

By Jason Bodner

The Hidden Strength of Last Week’s Market

A Look Ahead: President Trump Declares Economic War on China…and the Fed!

By Louis Navellier

Growth is Slowing in Europe – Lowering Their Already-Negative Interest Rates

Stocks Retreat on Escalating Tensions in Hong Kong and China

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 8/13/2019

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Last week was another roller-coaster ride, but the S&P’s net decline was only 1% for the week, and just -4.5% from its all-time high on July 26. The big news was the ongoing protests in Hong Kong, which are casting a cloud over China and raising concerns about global growth. These protests have now become more violent, including petrol bombs by some rioters and tear gas by the riot police to disperse crowds.

Protestors congregated at the airport, knowing that the Chinese police would not use tear gas within the airport, but riot police stormed the airport last Tuesday to disperse the protestors. These protests are now hurting the Hong Kong economy, so it will be interesting to see how this fight over lost freedoms in Hong Kong will eventually be resolved. In the meantime, the Chinese military remains on the border and if they enter Hong Kong for the first time since just after World War II, the stock market will likely have an adverse reaction. Here is a link to a podcast I recorded last week on these Hong Kong/China protests


In This Issue:

Bryan Perry sees this latest market sell-off as a rare opportunity for active money managers (like us) to show their stuff in selecting the winners that will likely emerge as leaders from the current carnage. Gary Alexander looks beyond the scary headlines of the past and present to identify America as the best place for your stock money now. Ivan Martchev turns his global attention south of the equator to the surprise election outcome in Argentina and what it implies for their currency and stock market. Jason Bodner examines what last week’s down days tell us and why we shouldn’t freak out over a partially inverted yield curve. Then I’ll return to analyze the U.S. market in light of our competitors in China and Europe.

Income Mail: Looking for Phoenix Stocks from August’s Ashes to Lead the Market Forward

By Bryan Perry

It's Time for Active Managers to Show Their Stuff

Growth Mail: If Not U.S. Stocks, Where Else? If Not Now, When?

By Gary Alexander

Despite August’s Volatility, Now is a Great Time to Invest

Global Mail: Time to “Cry for Argentina”?

By Ivan Martchev

Blue Chips are a Hedge for Inflation

Sector Spotlight: What Happened on Last Week’s Big Down Days?

By Jason Bodner

Don’t Freak Out About the “Inverted Yield Curve”

A Look Ahead: China and Europe are Slowing, the U.S. is Growing

By Louis Navellier

Are We Headed for an Imminent Recession? I Wouldn’t Bet on It

August Volatility Continues as Gold Surpasses $1,500

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 8/13/2019

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With over 85% of companies in the S&P 500 having announced their latest quarterly results, annual sales growth is running at a +5.2% annual pace, while 74% have beaten consensus earnings estimates.

Last week was certainty action-packed due to the escalating trade spat with China. I’ll have more to say about this later on, but here is a link to my podcast explaining the repercussions of this latest trade tiff.

Despite last week’s gyrations, the foundation under the stock market remains very strong, since the 10-year Treasury bond yield, at 1.734% (after an intraday low of 1.614%) remains substantially below the S&P 500’s annual dividend yield. As I have often said, when the S&P 500 yields more than the 10-year Treasury bond, which has only happened 8 times in the past decade, the stock market is a screaming buy!


In This Issue:

Bryan Perry explains how the competing currency devaluations in China, Europe, and the U.S. are pushing gold prices back to $1,500. Gary Alexander recounts the violent August market storms of recent pre-election years (2007, 2011 and 2015), with 2019 off to a similar start. Ivan Martchev is concerned about how long the “comrades” in Beijing can keep their economy afloat through artificial means, and what a big China collapse might mean to the global economy. Jason Bodner predicted this correction and now he is looking at sectors that might lead us back to new highs in the recovery. Then I’ll return to explain why I think China will blink first in this trade war, and why inflation remains no threat as interest rates decline.

Income Mail: What’s the Story Behind Gold’s Recent Rise?

By Bryan Perry

It May Not Be a “Fool’s Gold” Rally This Time Around

Growth Mail: Beware of August Markets in Pre-Election Years

By Gary Alexander

A Record “Low-Pressure System” Hit the Markets in August 2015

Global Mail: The Comrades’ Time is Running Out

By Ivan Martchev

Capitalist Economies Have Economic Cycles

Sector Spotlight: When Markets are Manic-Depressive, what is the Trend?

By Jason Bodner

Investors Want Out of Energy!

A Look Ahead: We Need Patience in the China Trade War, Since the U.S. Holds the Upper Hand

By Louis Navellier

Inflation is Down and Interest Rates are Falling Fast

Trade War Torpedoes the Market but Better Days Will Return Yet Again

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 8/6/2019

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I have long argued that the stock market should just close down for August. I know that’s impractical, but maybe now, you’ll agree with me, after the Dow fell over 1,146 points in the first three trading days of August, including a 767 point drop on Monday. NASDAQ did even worse, falling 3.5% Monday.

I’m sure August will continue to be volatile, but I view this volatility as a good buying opportunity for fundamentally sound stocks. Here’s a link to my Monday podcast for more details on what to do now.

As of last Friday, 77% of the companies in the S&P 500 have announced their second-quarter results and, so far, sales growth is running at a 3.6% annual pace, while the blended earnings decline is -1.0% vs. the expected -2.7%, according to FactSet Earnings Insight. So far, of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported, 61% have beat analyst estimates on sales and a whopping 76% have beaten earnings.

The biggest news last week was that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as expected, cut key interest rates by 0.25% by Wednesday after an 8-2 vote, with the doves easily overpowering the hawks. The Fed also ended its systematic selling of government securities two months earlier than planned. The FOMC statement cited global developments, a slowdown in business investment, and muted inflation as reasons for its first key interest rate cut in 11 years (since 2008). Ironically, the U.S. dollar strengthened after the FOMC statement, which is deflationary, because it lowers the cost of imported goods.

The market remained near its highs until President Trump dropped a Tariff-Tweet bomb on Thursday – threatening tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods starting September 1. The market then overreacted to the President’s bluff, pushing the Treasury yield below the S&P 500’s yield, creating a screaming buy!


In This Issue:

Bryan Perry still sees higher highs coming, especially if the U.S. stands firm in forcing China to end their unfair trade practices by year’s end. Gary Alexander also sees the calendar working in our favor with a strong fourth quarter, adding that U.S. stocks are still the best place for new money now. Ivan Martchev calls for a truce between the White House and Federal Reserve, reminding both fortresses that they have bigger battles (and other foes) to face. Jason Bodner takes us inside our weekly conference call for story ideas and repeats our wish that August would just go away. Then I return with a review of China, Europe, and the latest economic indicators, which continue to identify the U.S. as the oasis in both stocks and bonds.


Income Mail: The Post-FOMC “Halo Effect” for the U.S. Market Faces Key Tests

By Bryan Perry

It’s Still the Economy, Stupid!


Growth Mail: After a Summer Correction, Stocks Usually Explode in the Fall

By Gary Alexander

Stocks (or Advice on Stocks) Make an Ideal Gift for a College Graduate


Global Mail: More on the White House/Federal Reserve Clash

By Jason Bodner

It’s Still Too Early to Call a Recession


Sector Spotlight: A Chilling Market Forecast: “August is Coming”

By Jason Bodner

A Listen-in to our Weekly Friday Morning Conference Call


A Look Ahead: Europe and China are Still Struggling

By Louis Navellier

U.S. Economic News Remains Largely Positive

Ho-Hum! Another All-Time High - S&P Up 29% in 7 Months

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 7/30/2019

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The S&P reached another all-time high last Friday, up over 29% in the seven months since its December 26 intra-day lows. NASDAQ is up over 34% in the same time frame. I was especially surprised to see the lack of a significant correction after the announcements last week that the Justice Department has opened an antitrust probe into whether some dominant technology companies are unlawfully stifling competition.

Specifically, giant tech companies Google and Facebook are expected to be under tremendous scrutiny for years to come, while Amazon.com and Apple could also be swept up into an antitrust investigation.

Navellier & Associates owns AMZN, AAPL, and FB in a few managed accounts for clients but does not own google in managed accounts. Navellier & Associates does not own AMZN, AAPL, FB, or GOOGL in our sub-advised mutual fund. Louis Navellier and his family own AAPL and AMZN in personal accounts but do not own FB or Google.

I should add that we are in the peak week for second-quarter earnings announcements, which are largely coming in better than analysts expected. Although the breadth and power under the stock market has been excellent, the stock market is also getting ‘overbought’ near-term, so some profit-taking is expected.


In This Issue:

Bryan Perry sees good reasons for higher highs later this year, but we’ll likely endure some August doldrums first. Gary Alexander advises looking beyond the current (flat) earnings season to the more positive longer-term trends. After all, that’s what the market usually does. Ivan Martchev questions how soon this mini-trade-war could turn into an economy-strangling “real” trade war, like those of old. Jason Bodner asks and answers a key market question: How can we beat the market, consistently? Then I’ll return to look at some new concerns in Europe and the recent breakdown in Tesla’s business plan.


Income Mail: Expect Some Sizzle to Come Off the Summer Rally

By Bryan Perry

Stock Selection is at a Rising Premium


Growth Mail: Raise Your Eyes Above the Quarterly Horizon, Please!

By Gary Alexander

What about Those High P/E Ratios?


Global Mail: How Trade Wars Act like Mini Hot Wars

By Ivan Martchev

Smoot-Hawley Was a Big Factor in the Great Depression


Sector Spotlight: How Do I Make Market-Beating Money on Stocks?

By Jason Bodner

On Becoming a “Zombie Investor”


A Look Ahead: The ECB is “Driving the Bus” and the Fed is Following Their Lead

By Louis Navellier

Tesla Was a Major Disappointment Last Week

Market Dips Slightly on Escalating Middle East Tensions

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 7/23/2019

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After reaching another all-time high last Monday, July 15, the S&P 500 remained right around its new plateau of 3,000 before falling late Friday to close down 1.23% for the week. The essence of the reason for the decline was escalating tensions in Iran. President Trump on Friday said that Iran is “nothing but trouble,” and said the standoff with Tehran will eventually work out “very nicely.” Trump also said that “Iran is showing their colors” with the seizures and added that “Iran is in big trouble right now,” because its economy has been crippled by economic sanctions. Since Iran’s hostile actions have offended many allies, the pressure for Iran to return to the negotiating table continues to mount. There is growing hope that Iran will cease its hostile actions in the Strait of Hormuz when it returns to the negotiating table.

Oddly enough, crude oil prices fell sharply last week on the anticipation of any impending talks with Iran. This should help keep inflation low and support the Fed’s continued inclination to cut key interest rates.


IBryan Perry writes on an investment sector that has been in the dumps but is now on the move, energy infrastructure ETFs – along with some top recommendations. Gary Alexander writes about the Freedom Fest, where he and I spoke last week, covering some of our panels and other speakers of interest. Ivan Martchev writes on the interesting confluence of central bank strategies – seemingly offsetting each other in a twist on the movie “Analyze This!” Jason Bodner writes that market “stop” (or “sell”) signs can be as rare and hard to find as stop signs in Paris. Then, I wrap up with a look at the economy and world events.


Income Mail: Energy Infrastructure Is Making a Sudden Move

By Bryan Perry

Energy Infrastructure Offers Deep Value


Growth Mail: Highlights from Last Week’s Freedom Fest

By Gary Alexander

Some Other Panels (by Louis and Gary)


Global Mail: Analyze This! -- Central Bank Edition

By Ivan Martchev

The Stealth Credit Multiplier Effect


Sector Spotlight: Is the Market Approaching a Stop Sign?

By Jason Bodner

Does an “Overheated” Market Imply a Coming Crash?


A Look Ahead: Will Economic Sanctions on Iran be Temporarily Lifted?

By Louis Navellier

The Latest Economic News Points to a Rate Cut on July 31

The S&P is Now up 20% in 2019, Despite Flat Earnings So Far

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 7/16/2019

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July is a seasonally strong month and with many market pundits convinced that the Fed will cut key interest rates in late July at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Wall Street is now focusing on the upcoming second-quarter announcement season, fueling market highs in most indexes, with the S&P 500 up 20.2% through Friday, the Dow up 17.2%, and NASDAQ up 24.4%.

Earnings expectations are low, with S&P 500 companies forecast to post a 1.6% year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter. However, due to continued strong stock buy-back activity, a pessimistic analyst community, and the fact that positive operating earnings surprises are common, I expect the S&P 500 to eke out a small earnings gain for the quarter, although it could be a close call. Either way, stocks that continue to sustain strong earnings momentum are poised to break out and emerge as market leaders.

Due to operating margin compression, sales are growing faster than earnings, so I expect that sales growth may be more closely watched than earnings, but I expect those stocks that are still sustaining expanding operating margins to “break out,” since their earnings growth will still be growing faster than sales.


In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Bryan Perry credits central banks with helping to fuel this bull market, but the big push into U.S. equities comes from the superior returns available here vs. the rest of the world. Gary Alexander responds to some negative videos about America by adding some offsetting positives while also saying we need to address these many challenges to growth to remain #1. Ivan Martchev analyzes the role of MZM (Money Zero Maturity) as well as Fed policy in the recent bull market, while Jason Bodner takes a victory lap for his recent bullish predictions while tempering his long-term positive view with warnings about August. I’ll close with a positive view of a rising second half, based on history, Fed policy, and recent economic news.

Income Mail: There Is No Playbook for Today’s Central Bank Monetary Policy

By Bryan Perry

The “Lost Decade” for Markets Outside the U.S.

Growth Mail: Is America Great, or Just “OK”? Declining or Still #1?

By Gary Alexander

The Myth of America’s Decline…a Perennial Rerun

Global Mail: The Fed Made the Dovish Pivot Before the Last Rate Hike

By Ivan Martchev

Money Supply is Not the Sole Driver of Stock Prices

Sector Spotlight: Warning: Bullish Bragging Begins… Now

By Jason Bodner

Expect Higher Market Levels in 2019, After a Short Pause

A Look Ahead: The Third Year of the Presidential Cycle is the Best

By Louis Navellier

Fed Chair Powell is Now Clear About the Next Rate Cut

Global Interest Rates Continue to Drift Lower

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 7/9/2019

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The big news last week was the continued worldwide decline in interest rates, as the German 10-year bond hit -0.397%. A shocking 25% of all the government debt around the world now has negative yields, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond fell to 1.943% on Wednesday, leaving no doubt that the Fed will cut key interest rates at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in late July.

Due to weak economic news in most nations, we can expect continued rate cuts by central banks around the world in the upcoming months. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to 1%. This is the second 0.25% cut that the Reserve Bank of Australia has made in its past two meetings. I also expect that the European Central Bank (ECB) will also cut its key interest rate by 0.25%.


In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

There are plenty of investor concerns out there – which Bryan Perry itemizes – but investors are climbing that “wall of worry” to new market highs, with an outlook for more new highs in the second half. Gary Alexander agrees, seeing hope for popular support for most of the pillars of economic freedom which underlie long-term global growth. Ivan Martchev reminds us that the first micro-rate-cut is already behind us, with bigger rate cuts to come. Jason Bodner expected a quiet holiday week but got some unexpected positive action from insider data. I’ll close with a look at the new ECB structure and U.S. economic data.


Income Mail: Stock Indexes Scaling the “Wall of Worry,” Like Sir Edmond Hilary

By Bryan Perry

A Confluence of Factors – and Plenty of Confusion

Growth Mail: Global Growth is Relatively New and Fragile – Don’t Destroy It

By Gary Alexander

These 7 Pillars of Economic Freedom Promote Per Capita GDP Growth

Global Mail: The First Fed Rate Cut is Already Behind Us

By Ivan Martchev

Valid Points from My Alert Readers

Sector Spotlight: Unexpected Positives Hidden Deep in the Data

By Jason Bodner

Where We Stand at the Mid-Year Break

A Look Ahead: A Change of Leadership (But not Direction) at the ECB

By Louis Navellier

As the World Inches Toward a Global Recession, the U.S. Remains the Oasis

Stocks Enjoy Their Best First Half in Over 20 Years

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 7/2/2019

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The S&P 500 posted its best first half (+17.3%) since 1997, capped by the best June (+6.9%) since 1955. Stocks were especially strong on the last two days of June, likely to quarter-ending window dressing, which is a very good sign that institutional buying pressure will likely persist as earnings season heats up!

Early last week, the market was essentially “on hold” as investors waited for the outcome of last weekend’s G20 meeting in Japan with President Trump and Chinese President Xi, but on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on CNBC that “we are about 90% of the way [to a deal] and I think there’s a path to complete this,” which raised hope for a positive outcome and possible trade deal.

In exchange for returning to the negotiating table to pick up where China and U.S. trade negotiators left off, President Trump has agreed to postpone any additional tariffs, creating a face-saving atmosphere that makes both Trump and Xi both look good to their respective countries for negotiations over the summer.


In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Our authors have mixed views of the G20 summit. Bryan Perry fears that their posturing may be more “lipstick on a pig” than real progress, while Ivan Martchev sees signs of progress in both North Korea and China trade. Both see a rising U.S. market in the second half. Gary Alexander chronicles a great first half but sees “termites” eating away at our future growth in the form of high and rising deficits. Jason Bodner dives deep into last week’s anomaly in falling indexes across the board – except for the Russell 2000. Then I’ll return with a look at the latest indicators and the new debate between recession or 2% growth?


Income Mail: Lots of Lipstick Applied to the G20 Deal

By Bryan Perry

Back to Business as Usual for the Stock Market


Growth Mail: First Half “Post-Mortem” Looks More Like a “Resurrection”

By Gary Alexander

Long-Term Threat from Trillion-Dollar Annual Deficits


Global Mail: High-Level Diplomacy – Now on Sale

By Ivan Martchev

China’s “Kung Fu Debt Pile”


Sector Spotlight: Reverse-Engineering Last Week’s Russell 2000 Increase

By Jason Bodner

What Made the Russell 2k Rise While Most Indexes Declined?


A Look Ahead: Weak Economic News Virtually Guarantees a Rate Cut in Late July

By Louis Navellier

The Current Debate: A Recession Ahead, or 2% GDP Growth?

The Fed is Split 50-50 on 1 or 2 Rate Cuts in 2019

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 6/25/2019

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The big news last week was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement on Wednesday, which removed the word “patient” and set the Fed up for potential 0.25% key interest rate cuts at its July and/or September FOMC meetings. Interestingly, the FOMC statement also acknowledged that there are “muted inflation pressures” and that “business fixed investment has been soft,” which will cause the Fed “to act as appropriate.” Seven of 17 FOMC members now forecast two 0.25% rate cuts, while eight FOMC members forecast just one 0.25% rate cut. Only St. Louis Fed President James Bullard wanted to cut rates immediately. As a result, I expect that the Fed will likely cut rates by 0.25% at its July meeting.

At his press conference on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cited slowing global growth and lower interest rates as influences on slower U.S. economic growth. In fact, after his press conference, the 10-year Treasury bond fell below 2% in overseas trading for the first time since 2016. There is no doubt that persistent global capital flight to the U.S. is continuing to push Treasury yields lower. The market liked the Fed’s report and soared to new highs on Thursday, capping the best June (so far) since 1955


In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Bryan Perry leads off with an “off the political grid” income opportunity in healthcare REITs with a special focus on healthcare facility management. Gary Alexander offers a time-tested user’s guide to the upcoming doomsday predictions, along with an antidote to the fear politicians intend to engender. Ivan Martchev has long predicted that the junk bond market indicates no recession and a strong market, which June has justified. Jason Bodner shows how careful stock selection is more vital at times like this, when the markets are trading at new highs. Then, I’ll return with a focus on the global news last week.


Income Mail: A High Yield Bright Spot in the Healthcare Sector

By Bryan Perry

The Opportunity in Healthcare Facility REITs

Growth Mail: A User’s Guide to Doomsday Election-Year Predictions

By Gary Alexander

The Vast Gulf Between Wars and “Rumors of War”

Global Mail: It’s Too Early to Call a Recession

By Ivan Martchev

Junk Bonds, Yet Again, Called the New Stock Market Highs

Sector Spotlight: Perception vs. Reality in Nature and the Markets

By Jason Bodner

Want an Oasis in the Desert? Try U.S. Stocks.

A Look Ahead: Europe Moves to Sink the Euro, Lifting Gold to $1,400

By Louis Navellier

Trump’s Near Miss on War with Iran

All Eyes (and Ears) Are on the Federal Reserve This Week

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 6/18/2019

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The stock market was largely on “hold” last week in anticipation of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and clarification of when the Fed might start cutting key interest rates. Right now, the Fed Funds futures are signaling about a 74% chance that the Fed will cut rates at its late-July meeting. I think that a cut at the September meeting is much more likely, since President Trump likes to “torment” the Fed by telling them that they made a mistake by tightening too quickly last fall. 

Since the Fed is supposed to be independent of the White House, the Fed says that it is “data driven” instead of doing what President Trump wants, so we’ll dig into some of the details that will influence the FOMC’s decision, as well as covering ways to profit from collapsing worldwide interest rates.


In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Bryan Perry takes a ride in the profitable convertible market this week – that hybrid security market in which bonds can convert into common stock. Gary Alexander reviews the chances that this longest bull market and longest economic recovery can keep getting longer into 2020. Ivan Martchev examines the changing interest-rate environment in the last six months and how that intersects with the China trade deal standoff and new tensions in Iran. Jason Bodner uses a Father’s Day lesson to impart lessons of why we buy and hold the best stocks rather than over-trading, and then I’ll return with a review of last week’s various inflation indicators, the latest oil market realities, and the rest of the FOMC’s data checklist.

Income Mail: The Market’s Top-Down Case for Convertibles 

     By Bryan Perry

Buy Your Own Convertible (car) With Convertible Profits

Growth Mail: The Longest Day, the Longest Bull Market, and the Longest Recovery

     By Gary Alexander

Growth Trumps Value This Year and This Decade

Global Mail: There is a Bull Market in Bonds Out There

     By Ivan Martchev

Political Judo, Sun Tzu-Style

Sector Spotlight: A Father’s Day Message from 37,000 Feet

     By Jason Bodner

Growth Still Leads the Way

A Look Ahead: Inflation is Low (and Going Lower), Giving the Fed Room to Cut Rates

     By Louis Navellier

Other Economic Indicators That the FOMC Will Watch Most Closely This Week

Switch from Trade Fears to Rate-Cut Hopes Lifts Stocks

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 6/11/2019

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The financial news media has switched its obsession from trade tariffs to a coming Fed rate cut, so the news media is finally reporting some more positive news for a change and the market “melted up” by almost 5% last week, recovering more than two-thirds of its losses suffered in the entire month of May.

Despite this sharp rise in the indexes last week, I’d still say stock picking will beat index funds, especially with the NASDAQ 100, where several flagship stocks are under investigation. Google is under Justice Department scrutiny in a potential antitrust probe, and The Wall Street Journal has also reported that the Federal Trade Commission is probing how Facebook’s business practices impact digital competition. 

The NASDAQ 100 is also being adversely impacted by Tesla’s woes, so NASDAQ’s former flagship index is under siege as many of its mega-cap stocks falter. Fortunately, I do not own Google, Facebook, or Tesla, so I have not been adversely impacted by these NASDAQ 100 flagships’ recent gyrations. 

Navellier & Associates does not own Tesla, Google or Facebook in managed accounts and our sub-advised mutual fund. Louis Navellier and his family does not own Tesla or Google or Facebook in personal accounts.


In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

What a difference one week makes! Bryan Perry examines how some of the “bad news” on the economic front perversely makes a rate cut more likely, which favors stocks. Gary Alexander wonders if China is in danger of the kind of long-term growth malaise Japan has suffered since 1990, if they don’t reform some of their economic shell games. Ivan Martchev also has suspicions about China’s growth rate, in light of falling oil and industrial metals prices. Jason Bodner celebrates the revival of stocks in general, and tech and semi-conductors specifically, as the market wakes up to the good news that has been there all along. In the end, I give three reasons why rates are falling worldwide and why we can expect rate cuts here, too.

Income Mail: The Bond Market is “Already There” and Waiting on the Fed to Catch Up 

           By Bryan Perry

Jerome Powell to Wall Street – “I’ve Got Your Back” 

Growth Mail: Will China’s Growth Machine Suddenly Implode – Like Japan’s Did?

           By Gary Alexander

China’s Growth Rates are Already Slowing Dramatically

Global Mail: Commodities are “from Venus,” Too

           By Ivan Martchev

You Can't Fake Oil Demand

Sector Spotlight: It Pays Dividends to Hunt for Good (Realistic) News

           By Jason Bodner

Equities were “Tweeted into a Tailspin” in May

A Look Ahead: What’s Behind the Global Race to Zero (or even Negative) Interest Rates?

           By Louis Navellier

Most Economic Indicators Point Toward a Slowdown, Justifying Fed Rate Cuts

Market Indexes are Down in May Over Several Global Crises

Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 5/29/2019

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The S&P 500 is down about 4% so far in May (through last Friday) mostly due to trade tensions with China, but those tensions were loosened somewhat on Friday after U.S. officials eased some of the trade restrictions on China’s 5G giant, Huawei, granting them a 90-day temporary extension to stock up on U.S. semiconductor orders. Since Googleprovides their Android system, Huawei’s 5G phones will be at a tremendous disadvantage without access to Android’s voice recognition. Clearly, Huawei will be forced to develop its own voice-activated system if the fight over 5G continues and lasts for over 90 days. 

This move gives Presidents Trump and Xi time to work out a face-saving solution to the trade war. As I have repeatedly said, both Trump and Xi want to say they “won,” so the new trade deal must benefit both China and the U.S. In the meantime, do not be surprised if China devalues the yuan to offset tariff costs. 

In my opinion, however, Thursday’s market decline stems more from European fears than China, as I’ll explain below. There’s also a crisis brewing in Iran, which Bryan Perry examines in more detail below.

Navellier & Associates does not own Google or Huawei in managed accounts and our sub-advised mutual fund. Louis Navellier and his family do not own Google or Huawei in personal accounts.


In This Issue of Marketmail (Click Here to Read)

Most of our authors focus on the positive side of the U.S./China trade talk impasse. The U.S. holds the winning hand and China seems to be shooting itself in the foot. Bryan Perry focuses on the slowing growth rate in China and the opportunity in U.S. defensive blue-chip stocks paying high dividend yields. Gary Alexander disputes the assumption that inflation will return if high tariffs remain in place over time, while Ivan Martchev argues that China seems to use these latest tariffs as cover for a long-term strategy of yuan devaluation. Jason Bodner covers the sectors that have sold-off in the latest “controlled-burn” correction, while I argue that these trade tensions will not hurt the U.S. economy or the market, long-term.

Bryan Perry doesn’t think President Trump will authorize any Mideast War, but he recognizes the risk. More importantly, he chronicles a record quarter of global and domestic dividends and buy-backs. Gary Alexander takes us back a century to a very troubled year, 1919, but a great (+30%) year for stocks. Ivan Martchev settles in for the long-game in the China-U.S. “trade storm,” while describing what seems to be a typical bit of deception in Huawei’s intellectual property (IP) practices. Jason Bodner shares a personal angle on how stocks tend to return to their long-term ascent after normal corrections. Then I’ll examine the unrest in Europe as the main culprit for last Thursday’s market malaise, and a closing note on Tesla.


Income Mail: Perception of Risk of an Iran War Feeds Market Tension

           By Bryan Perry

U.S. Leads Global Record Quarter of Rising Dividend Payouts


Growth Mail: A Memorial Day to Remember – 1919

           By Gary Alexander

We Don’t Know History, So We Don’t See How Good Things Are Today


Global Mail: The Calm before the Chinese Trade Storm

           By Ivan Martchev

An Anecdote on Chinese IP Practices


Sector Spotlight: Remember – Great Stocks Always Go Back Up

           By Jason Bodner

A Return to Red Ink Last Week


A Look Ahead: European Unrest Was a Big Cause of Last Thursday’s Sell-off

           By Louis Navellier

Analyst Sees Decline of Tesla to $10