Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 07/17/2018
The S&P 500 is up over 3% in the first half of July and Nasdaq is at an all-time high, despite the ongoing tariff disputes with China. I believe the press has overblown the "trade war" story, but the overall market is waking up to the fact that the likely eventual outcome will be fewer tariffs and fairer trade in the end.
I'll believe there is a true trade war with China when I see most of the shelves at Best Buy and Wal-Mart empty, since the vast majority of their goods are made in China. China still has a huge trade surplus with us. For every dollar of U.S. exports to China, the U.S. imports $3.87 of Chinese merchandise, so China has a lot more to lose than the U.S. does. In the end, I expect that China will seek a truce on trade tariffs.
My global expert, Ivan Martchev, has been writing about China a lot lately. As he has pointed out, China and the U.S. are dependent on each other. As a result, the relationship President Trump has with Chinese President Xi Jinping is very important. I suspect that the Trump Administration will not try to publicly humiliate President Xi Jinping, like he has been doing to our Canadian and German allies. Instead, I expect that the tariff "war" between the U.S. and China will be resolved diplomatically. As a result, every market dip on trade concerns represents a buying opportunity for our recommended U.S. and global stocks.
Bryan Perry compares the Shanghai and American stock indexes to demonstrate why China needs trade resolution more than America does. Gary Alexander shows how great earnings and other indicators trump the shrinking yield curve when it comes to predicting U.S. economic growth. Ivan Martchev turns his attention to zero-coupon Treasuries as the preferable bond play now, while Jason Bodner sees the same two or three sectors continuing to lead this market higher. I'll return with a few comments on German-American trade talk and the latest oil and inflation news, as well as some specific energy stock picks.
It's "Shanghai Noon" for the Chinese Stock Market
Broken Links in the Global Supply Chain are the Real Risk
by Bryan Perry
Let's "Make Earnings Great Again" (MEGA)
Is the Shrinking Yield Curve Signaling a Recession?
by Gary Alexander
U.S. Treasury Zeroes, the Contrarian Trade of the Century
The Yuan is the Weapon of the Sun Tzu Disciples
by Ivan Martchev
When Predictions Don't Work...Change Your Mind!
The Same Leaders Are Driving This Market Higher
by Jason Bodner
German-American Language Differences
Higher Oil Prices Spark a New Wave of "Temporary" Inflation
by Louis Navellier