Excerpt from Louis Navellier's Marketmail - 4/9/2019
April is seasonally the third strongest month of the year, thanks in part to new pension contributions in conjunction with the April 15 tax deadline. The S&P 500 began April with a 1.15% gain on Monday and a 2.06% gain for the first week of April. Our friends at Bespoke Investment Group pointed out that when the S&P 500 rises at least 1% on the first trading day in April, historically the S&P 500 has risen by an average 4.25% in April, 12.2% in the second quarter, and 21.32% for the next six months (the second and third quarters), respectively, during the nine previous such occurrences that have happened since 1945.
As of last Friday, the S&P 500 has risen seven straight days, three straight weeks, and 13 of the last 16 weeks, with net gains of over 23% since Christmas Eve. I keep expecting a correction in this seemingly overbought market, but I’m not complaining! We remain in a “Goldilocks” economy of low inflation, slow but positive growth, and lower long-term interest rates (2.50% on the 10-year Treasury bond rate last Friday vs. 3.24% five months ago), so well-selected stocks remain the best place for our money.
Bryan Perry brings us some good news about how the news of a “Global Slowdown” is not only wrong but a product of glaring media bias. Gary Alexander brings us Part 1 of a two-part series on how the media lies to us with statistics – it pays to be skeptical of how the numbers can be twisted. Ivan Martchev updates his Deutsche Bank/U.S. Treasury rate correlation, with added comments on the Brexit crisis. Jason Bodner reports on the power of Growth vs. Value right now, while his MAP ratio shows the market is no longer overbought. Then I’ll close with a closer look at the Fed and the latest economic scorecard.
Income Mail: The “Global Slowdown” Narrative is Losing Ground
By Bryan Perry
Less Whine and More Cheese Needed from France
Growth Mail: Don’t Trust Statistics – Except Mine, of Course
By Gary Alexander
Polls “Push” the Answers They Want
Global Mail: Rampant Eurozone Deflation Creates a Bizarre Deutsche Bank Correlation
By Ivan Martchev
Deutsche Bank Delivers 22 Cents on the Dollar
Sector Spotlight: Growth Trumps Value So Far in 2019
By Jason Bodner
MAP Ratio Exits “Overbought” Condition
A Look Ahead: President Trump Wants to “Pack the Fed” With Allies
By Louis Navellier
Most Economic Statistics Show a Slight Slowdown in 2019